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Climate, a term ignored by the most prominent treaty, the
UNFCCC-1992
Abstract: While the debate
on the climatic change issue has reached unprecedented global prominence over
the recent years, the content is often a fierce clash of opinions rather than a
fruitful discussion. One reason could be the use of insufficiently defined
terms in climatology. The key term ‘climate’ is used by lay persons, politics,
and science alike, while the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC
(1992) does not define the term at all. Instead the Convention defines ‘climate
change’ and ‘climate system’, which does not necessarily mean that it makes the
terminology more definite. This requires looking at the ordinary meaning as
used since Ancient Greek, and how science explains the terms nowadays, and
whether it is done in a manner that avoids confusion, or misleading
interpretation. As science is supposed to define and use terms and definitions
with care, the current situation
may require that the major terms used in climatology are revised.
In December 1990, the UN General Assembly approved the start of treaty
negotiations (Resolution 45/212). The Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee
for a Framework Convention on Climate Change (INC/FCCC) met for five sessions
between February 1991 and May 1992, and due to a strict deadline - the June
1992 Rio "Earth Summit"- negotiators from 150 countries finalized the
Convention in just 15 months. It was adopted in New York on 9 May 1992.
But can it be
wrong when the words “weather” and “climate” are used in a very unspecific and
broad meaning? Yes if presented as a scientific term; definitely not as in
everyday use. Even without any concrete meaning as term, or as definition the
two terms weather and climate are part of everyone’s life, which is understood,
shaped, and expressed individually and according to the situation, while a
corresponding application in science would be unacceptable. Civil societies have
used the terms since the Greek epoch, or much longer, and the general public
knows how to deal with them, and has no problem to discuss aspects at length.
But if scientists talk the same way as laymen, that will inevitably cause great
uncertainty and confusion. That is the issue this paper is concerned about.
Should science be required to say explicitly what they mean when they talk
about “weather” and “climate”?
As addressee for
clear terms and definitions also politics and those international institutions
need to be named, which are active in regard to the implementation of the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change from 1992 (UNFCCC).
Although the word climate is prominently included in the title, the Convention
is silent on the term “climate”.
WEATHER:
CLIMATE:
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE SYSTEM
None of these common explanations reflect
the fact that the atmosphere is ruled by physic-chemical processes, which make
and control local and global weather and climate phenomena.
Although
the word “weather” is presumably one of the most used terms in every persons
life for many thousands of years, for the general public it is an undefined
expression and used by every individual according imagination, usually by
arbitrary selection of one or more aspects, e.g. sun-shine, cloudiness, season,
location. It covers atmospheric aspects
the person can see, or feel, or has heard of. However, “weather” is so much part
of every persons daily life, that single weather elements are usually
recognized not in an abstract manner, but by an imaginative picture, e.g. the
today’s temperatures, rainfall, cloudiness on the way to work, or at the
holiday resort in the Caribbean next week. This type of “weather” understanding
is very distinct from how science has to look at the issue.
The World
Meteorology Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations
(UN) [12]. Within the UN system, the WMO understand itself as:
and as the
specialized agency:
·
in a narrow
sense Climate is usually defined as the “average weather”,
·
in a more
rigorously way, Climate is the statistical description in terms of the mean and
variability of relevant quantities over a period of time[1],
and
·
in a broader
sense, Climate is the status of the climate system which comprises the
atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the surface lithosphere, and the
biosphere.
None of
these items are clear. For example:
·
“average
weather” explains nothing, and if renamed in “climate” it makes nothing
clearer;
·
A
“statistical description” is possible only where statistics are available,
actually only when data have been collected and recorded, and can only be
applied for the past. The future has no “statistical description”.
·
How can an
authoritative UN agency seriously say that “climate is the status of the
climate system…”, which is a senseless tautology. To recognize immediately the
emptiness of explanation, one needs only use WMO’s own explanation by replacing
‘climate ‘ in the last (broader sense) sentence, e.g.:
o
“average
weather” is the status of the climate system….; or
o
“statistical
description in terms of the mean” is the status of the climate system…
NOTE: Statistics are the science of collecting, analyzing,
presenting, and interpreting data. (...) Data are the
facts and figures that are collected, analyzed, and summarized for presentation and interpretation. (Encyclopædia Britannica, www.britannica.com)
None of the
WMO explanations reflect in any way what they claim the organization is the
authoritative UN institution (see above), e.g.: interaction with the oceans,
operational hydrology and related geophysical sciences.
The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by the
WMO and the United Nations Environment Programme – UNEP- [13]. Since 1990, it
has produced several reports, which are based on peer reviewed papers. The last
was released as the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014, with the 6th
due in 2021/2022. Since the First Report, ‘climate’ was defined as the average weather
[14], while weather received no special attention. Over the years some slightly
varying explanations were used, either in the reports or in glossaries, of
which we consult only the last material of the Working Group I in 2007. The
IPCC Glossary, as Ref. [11], has not listed weather, and on climate it is said
this:
Projecting changes in climate (i.e., long-term average weather) due to changes in atmospheric composition or other factors is a very different and much more manageable issue.
As an analogy, while it is
impossible to predict the age at which any particular man will die, we can say
with high confidence that the average age of death for men in industrialized
countries is about 75.
The Ref. [9], NASA,
explains that:
This is well illustrated
in the way the Ref. [1], AMS, makes the following distinction:
·
The
“present weather” table consists of 100 possible conditions,
·
with
10 possibilities for “past weather”, while
·
popularly, weather is thought
of in terms of temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility,
and wind.
the
future weather? The extreme shortcoming of the explanation is revealed by the
reference to “popularly weather”, which may reflect the layman’s version
reasonably, but not necessarily. If the AMS Glossary actually says that popular
weather exist –presumably- of five conditions, past weather consists of 10
conditions and present weather consists of 100 conditions it seems that this is
nonsense talking. There is no such thing as small, medium, and big weather,
with few, several, or many dynamo-physical atmospheric elements. Weather is
either weather, or it is statistics of one or several weather components.
·
“The difference between weather
and climate is a measure of time scales. Weather is what conditions of the
atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere
"behaves" over relatively long periods of time”.
It requires a lot
of guessing and own imagination to make something up from this explanation.
That the Ref. [9] does not dare to understand the terms weather and climate just
in the same way as any layperson may be demonstrated with the following
reference:
As NASA draws
the distinction between weather and climate as a measure of time (see previous
paragraph), it seems they understand under climatology the science about “short
time weather” and “long time weather”, making it difficult to regard the
description as clear, correct and useful.
A
preliminary look at the most relevant legal instrument on climatic matters, the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992[2],
- FCCC – shows that it is in no way any clearer in the terminology as those of
the institutions already mentioned. Article 1 on definitions covers nine
topics, of which sub-paragraph 2 and 3 are relevant for this analysis:
It is
astonishing, to say the least, that an international UN Convention is coming up
with two compounded words, which include ‘climate’ without defining the term in
the first place.
In contrast and
for comparison it seems necessary to list a few explanations how the concerned
scientific disciplines are recognized, to show that it is about physics and chemistry,
e.g.:
dynamics
of the earth's atmosphere, from the earth's surface to several hundred
kilometers; this usually includes atmospheric chemistry, aeronomy,
magnestospheric physics, and solar influence on the entire region [21].
(AMS-Glossary)4.1 Basics
The presented examples hardly show
that science uses the words weather and climate in a different way as the
general public has used them for some millenniums. There are variations but in
substance the meaning is the same and differs not very much. That could be
taken for granted if any confusing, and misunderstanding is excluded.
Presumably it did not matter as long as science showed little interest in
climate matters, which was the case well until the middle of the last century,
until which climatology was regarded as the mere dry-as-dust bookkeeping end of
meteorology [22]. But since science has raised the climate issue to a top
policy issue on mankind’s survival and a multi billion dollar investment
matter, a need for clarity in language and whether the matter is understood and
sufficiently handled is obvious. But science has not come up with more than
that ‘climate’ is average or statistical weather. As a scientific definition it
would require in the first place to say what “weather” is, and in the second
place why it makes sense to call average weather or statistical weather
‘climate’, although the subjects remains the same: average weather, or
statistical weather.
On the other
hand, the two terms “climate change” and “climate system” do not originate in
the layman’s sphere. They became prominent with the start of the global warming
debate in
the
1980s. Either due to this debate or a general belief of everybody to know what
climate is all about, many may say that they have an idea about climate change
and climate system at least in broad terms. That would be sufficient in the
layman’s sphere, but unacceptable in science.
It is difficult to understand and to discuss,
why ‘average weather’ shall be named ‘climate’. Worse, if it is not said what
is covered by the term “weather”, with five, twenty, hundred, or all physical
elements. If necessary it is sufficient to talk about temperatures, cloudiness,
or increased carbon dioxide, but none of these items represent THE WEATHER at a
certain place and time, or makes it to ‘average weather’. But while
temperatures, humidity, or CO2 are physical parameters, the term CLIMATE is
standing for nothing.
Meanwhile the
two terms are international law and are frequently used by governments,
politicians, science and organizations to pursue a high stake global agenda,
specifically on global warming and greenhouse gas emissions. In the Nobel Peace
Prize Lecture, 2007, the Chairman of IPCC, R.K. Pachauri, said:
·
“……climate change will have
several implications, as numerous adverse impacts are expected for some
populations in terms of: access to clean water, access to sufficient food,
stable health conditions, ecosystem resources, security of settlements” [24].
Terminology used
should therefore be clear, unambiguous, and relevant for the subject matter.
the
common explanation on “average weather”, because “average weather” in
scientific terms (see WMO above) is statistics, and remains statistics
regardless of any name given to the set of statistics. But even if one is
willing to say: OK, it is not necessarily the best solution, but better then
nothing, it raises several other uncertainties. There would be e.g. the problem
of the selection, which weather components are chosen: two, five, twenty or one
hundred, or the time period to apply, if this period is not covered by weather
statistics?
The absolute uselessness
of a term ‘climate system’ is quite obvious, as it is synonym with the term
“nature” [25]. “What is the point of a legal term if it explains nothing? All
that this boils down to is: “the interactions of the natural system”. Why any
circumvention if could be said directly:
“weather system” means the totality of the atmosphere, hydrosphere,
biosphere and geo-sphere and their interactions. The attempt to construe
from “average weather” or “statistical weather” a system is a failure. It
ignores completely the basis of all atmospheric processes: physics. The
definition “climate system” explains nothing.
terminology
is a mess and neither reasonable definite nor intelligible. For communication
with the general public they are insufficient, useless, and of no help. Not one
of the numerous terms in question, explains anything about the composition of
the atmosphere and its performance. The reason seems simple. Science is either
unable or unwilling to present and explain to themselves, politics and the
general public that any status or change in the atmosphere is a physical
process. They define ‘meteorology’ and ‘atmospheric science’ as a matter of
physics, chemistry, and dynamics, but present and communicate the issue, as if
it is a complete separate sphere, namely that of laypersons. It ignores that
for the people, their every day weather and climate is a very immediate and
often emotional aspect, and any unspecific use of the terms is
irresponsible.
As the terms
weather and climate belong to the laymen’s sphere, it is doubtful whether
science should use them for their terminology. They should not, as it is a
source of confusion. However, if science and politics want to use the word
“climate” in service for themselves and the general public they should lay the
focus on the essence of the weather system, or the driver of the weather
system, by saying: “Climate is the continuation of the oceans by other means”,
see Ref. [25], or to say it with Leonardo da Vinci (1452-1519): “Water is the
driver of nature”.
Further
material discussed at: http://www.whatisclimate.com/
References
(NOTE: Due to some older online links, they have not been reproduced.)
[1] AMS-Glossary, ‘weather’, American Meteorological
Society, (2000),.
[2] Encyclopædia Britannica,.
[3]
NOAA, National Weather Service (2007),
[4]
WMO, World Meteorology Organization; /Themes/Weather/Climate/;
[5] Columbia Electronic Encyclopedia, 6th
ed., Columbia University,
[6] Williams, Kevin Commentary: What is the
etymology of meteorology? (2007
[7] Hare, F. Kenneth, The Vaulting of
Intellectual Barriers: The Madison Thrust in Climatology, Bulletin American Meteorological Society, (1979),
60, 1171 – 1124.
[8] Hann, Julius, Handbook of Climatology,
Handbuch der
Klimatologie, 2nd ed., (1897), Stuttgart.
[9] NASA, “What
Weather Means“ and “Things That Make Up Our Weather”, and “What's the Difference
Between Weather and Climate?”,.
[10]
Weart, Spencer, Discovery of
Global Warming - Climatology as Profession, (2009);
[11]
IPCC-Glossary, Working Group I, A.P.M.
Baede (ed), Climate Change, (2007), The Physical Science Basis, Glossary A-D;.
[12]
WMO-Homepage, /About us/WMO
[13]
Agrawala, Shardul, Explaining the Evolution of the IPCC Structure and
Process, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, (2007
[14]
Houghton, J.T.; G.J. Jenkins, J.J. Ephraums (ed), Climate Change –The IPCC Scientific
Assessment, Cambridge, (2000), xxxv.
[15] IPCC - Historical Overview of Climate Change Science, Lead Authors: Hervé Le Treut,
Richard Somerville, (2007), FAQ 1.1 What Factors
Determine Earth’s Climate? 96-97. FAQ 1.2 What is the Relationship between
Climate Change and Weather? 104-105,
[16]
AMS-Glossary, ‘climate’, American Meteorological Society,
[17]
NASA-Glossary, Nasa Earth Observatory, [18] University of British Columbia, “What is
Atmospheric Science?”,.
[19] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition, Atmospheric
Scientists,
[20]
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Group, The University of Tokyo,
[21]
AMS-Glossary, ‘atmospheric-science’), 2nd Edition, (2000),
[22] Lamb, H.H., The New Look
of Climatology, Nature, (1969), 223, 1209-1215.
[23] Kincer, J.B., The Danzig Meeting of
the International Climatological Commission and the Commission on Agricultural
Meteorology, Monthly Weather Review,
(1935), 63, 342-344,
[24]
Pachauri, R. K., Nobel Lecture, The Nobel Peace Prize 2007,
[25]
Bernaerts, Arnd, Climate Change, Letter to the Editor,
Nature, (1992), Vol. 360, p.292.
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